Updated at 12:36 p.m. on Nov. 4.

Republicans had a strong night Tuesday, strengthening the resolve of party strategists who now believe they hold the same key weapon Democrats wielded in 2006 and 2008: A motivated base of activists who can fuel their party's comeback.

"There's something going on here," Nick Ayers, executive director of the Republican Governors Association, said at The Hotline's post-election briefing Wednesday morning. "[Republicans] don't get a four-point victory in New Jersey based on a governor's record.... This is a great forecast of where Democratic policies will get them in 2010."

Perhaps. But as we head into 2010, the question is: Do the major components of the 2010 campaign landscape resemble the ones Democrats enjoyed in the past two election cycles closely enough to fuel a GOP revival? In many ways, the answer is decidedly "yes." In one important way, however, the answer is still "no."

It's not that voters suddenly like Bush; it's that they no longer view him as relevant.

One key advantage for Republicans today is the level of intensity felt within their party's base. Self-described Republicans turned out in higher levels Tuesday than they did in 2008, boosting Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell (R) in Virginia and Gov.-elect Chris Christie (R) in New Jersey.

One big reason: It's the economy... my friend. While Democrats relied on the Iraq war in 2006 and 2008 to motivate their base and attract new and independent voters, Republicans today are benefiting from voters' lingering concerns about jobs and the recession. Exit polls on Tuesday in Virginia and New Jersey bear this out, suggesting an issues landscape that tilts heavily toward the GOP.

In New Jersey, 31 percent of voters said the economy and jobs were their No. 1 concern, followed by 26 percent who listed property taxes and 20 percent who cited corruption. Polling has shown the focus on property taxes and corruption helped Christie against the Democratic incumbent, Jon Corzine. Health care, an issue where Democrats generally run strongly, placed fourth with 18 percent. In Virginia, the economy and jobs (46 percent) also dominated voters' minds, far outpacing health care (25 percent), taxes (14 percent) and transportation (8 percent), according to exit polls.

"People care about jobs. And you've got a party in Washington that's not talking about jobs. They're talking about health care and energy. They aren't focused on jobs. They're focused on spending," Ayers said, previewing a GOP talking point for 2010.

While the focus on corruption in New Jersey stemmed mostly from local developments, national Republicans also hope to take a page directly from the 2006 playbook of Democrats, who railed at the time against the "culture of corruption" that seemed to permeate the GOP majorities. Today, more than a dozen House Democrats face ethics investigations, including House Ways and Means Chairman Charles Rangel of New York and veteran Rep. John Murtha of Pennsylvania.

Perhaps the bigger concern for Democrats is the dramatic shift Tuesday among independent voters. In 2006 and 2008, independents trended heavily towards Democrats, helping the party carry traditionally conservative House districts and boosting Barack Obama in red states like Virginia, Indiana and North Carolina. This week, independents threw their support behind Republicans, according to exit polls.

In New Jersey, Christie trounced Corzine among independents, 60 percent to 33 percent. In Virginia, McDonnell led Democrat Creigh Deeds among independent voters by a whopping 66 percent to 33 percent. Last year, Obama won independent voters in both states (by one point in Virginia and four points in New Jersey).

Of the two, Christie's victory is far more problematic for Democrats, who had hoped that voters would recoil at the Republican's resume as a George W. Bush-appointed federal prosecutor. They did not, making it hard to see how Democrats' strategy of tying their GOP rivals to Bush, effective in the past two cycles, still carries the same punch. It's not that voters suddenly like Bush; it's that they no longer view him as relevant.

Ayers' Democratic counterpart, Nathan Daschle, cautioned against reading too much into Tuesday's results. "Last night was the sixth time in a row that both states went against the party in the White House," he told reporters. "It's what they do."

Indeed, there are other signs from Tuesday that complicate the case for Republican optimism. As both parties agree, 2010 will be a referendum on Obama, who polls showed is still very popular in the two states that rejected his preferred candidates for governor. Polls also showed Obama had little effect this week on voters in both states.

In other words, in 2009, nobody ran against Obama. Next year, that's unlikely to be the case. But unless a lot changes, Republicans can't count on him to be the bogeyman Bush was in '06 and '08.