Illinois Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias is a Democratic rising star in a state that has few. He's young, smart and ambitious, and he could do well in a campaign that focused on him. But in 2010, for better or worse, he won't get that chance. Whether he wins his U.S. Senate race next fall depends on how closely voters connect him to two other men: Barack Obama and Rod Blagojevich.

A similar calculus could be applied to Giannoulias' Republican rival, Rep. Mark Kirk. Like Giannoulias, Kirk could do well in a campaign that focused on him. But Kirk's fate in 2010 could also be tied to a man he'd rather not mention: George W. Bush.

Republicans have made it clear they'll try to link Giannoulias to unsavory Democrats like Blagojevich and Rezko.

Giannoulias' hope is that if the race comes down to a battle of albatrosses, his is lighter.

Running for Obama's Senate seat weighs heavily on Giannoulias, who leads a three-way Democratic field in the Feb. 2 primary and runs about even with Kirk in early general-election matchups. "In a state that's very blue, in a state where the president is very popular, in a state where it should be an easy race, it will be close," he said Wednesday in an interview with The Hotline. "Where the economy is, where unemployment is [in November 2010], will have an enormous impact on this race."

Giannoulias embraces the president -- for now. "He's been like a mentor to me. He's a friend, I've learned a lot from him," he said of Obama. "Ideologically we tend to agree on most things. That's just the way it is."

"Have things been perfect? No," he added. "But when you look philosophically at what they've tried to do with stimulus and health care, I like the action; I like the fact that they're trying to force the conversation and make things happen right away."

(There is apparently one key difference. "He's more of a White Sox fan," he said of Obama. "I'm more of a Cubs fan.")

Assuming Giannoulias wins his party's nod, however, Republicans have made it clear they'll try to link him to unsavory Democrats like Blagojevich and Tony Rezko. "How does he plan to distance himself from his obvious ties to the corruption that has plagued Illinois politics?" asked one Republican operative, suggesting questions for Hotline editors to ask Giannoulias. "Follow-up has to hit him on Blago ties, Rezko, mob, etc."

Giannoulias appears unfazed -- for now. "The good news is that the folks in Illinois know I was never close to him," he said of Blagojevich. "He endorsed my primary opponent when I ran for state treasurer. I was one of the first Democrats to call for him to step down.... But that doesn't mean they're not going to try [to link us]. So we'll be prepared."

Giannoulias is also prepared to take a page out of the playbook that boosted Democrats in 2006 and 2008: linking his opponent to Bush. "We can either turn the page for reform or we can go back," he said. "[Kirk] voted for all of George Bush's budget, where the debt doubled. He voted for the Bush tax cuts for the richest 1 percent. So he's got a lot of explaining to do."

Republicans scoff at the Bush bogeyman strategy. Brian Walsh, a National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman, notes that Kirk has represented a Democratic-leaning suburban district for nearly a decade and, in 2008, handily won re-election in the face of negative ads that linked him to Bush. Meanwhile, Obama carried Kirk's district with 61 percent.

"If Alexi Giannoulias wants to use a failed 2008 playbook in 2010 with George Bush out of office, Rod Blagojevich on trial and independent voters swinging back toward Republicans, this will be an easier campaign for Mark Kirk to win than we thought," Walsh said.