Advocates for the public option like to point to polls showing significant support for their position. But relying on voter's current perceptions of a public option is of little use in understanding how health care reform will ultimately be framed.

For those Democrats getting pummeled with reams of health care polling data by those hoping to sway their vote, my advice is pretty simple: Look to the sum of the parts, not the parts themselves. The fact that public opinion supports a government-run option is only important if it makes it easier for Democrats to sell voters on the overall benefits of health reform.

A poll taken by Research 2000 for Daily Kos at the end of September found that 59 percent of adults favored "creating a government-administered health insurance option that anyone can purchase to compete with private insurance plans." While a majority of Republicans (71 percent) opposed this option, Kos' Markos Moulitsas noted that "a quarter of Republicans support the public option -- far more bipartisanship than you'll see in D.C. on this issue."

Likewise, Democratic pollsters John Anzalone and Jeff Liszt surveyed 91 swing districts and concluded that "[a] majority of voters in these districts support a public option." And the most recent Kaiser Family Foundation poll also found strong support for the public option, with 57 percent in favor of "creating a government-administered public health insurance option similar to Medicare to compete with private health insurance plans."

If the White House and Democratic leaders in Congress couldn't sell a coherent message this summer, will they be able to sell voters on their final version of the plan?

Yet Claudia Dean, the associate director for public opinion and survey research at the Kaiser Family Foundation, points out that perceptions of the public option are very malleable. In a July survey for Kaiser, supporters of a public option were asked if they'd still support it if it gave the government "an unfair advantage over private insurance companies." That brought support down from 59 percent to 35 percent of all respondents. Opponents were only slightly firmer in their opinion. When naysayers were asked if they would support a public option if it helped "drive down costs," total support rose to 72 percent.

More important, when it comes to public support for health care reform, the whole isn't as popular as its individual parts. Kaiser's Deane told me that Americans "like a lot of these individual proposals on first blush," but "when they are leery, it seems to be about how a complex package of proposals bundled together as reform will affect their own costs and their own coverage."

The September Kaiser poll found more respondents worried that Congress would pass a bad health reform bill (51 percent) than worried that Congress wouldn't pass anything at all (41 percent). More fundamentally, fewer people thought a health care bill would help them and their families (42 percent) than said it would either hurt them (23 percent) or not affect them at all (28 percent). In other words, the public may support the concept of the public option, but they have yet to "buy in" to the concept that fundamental reform will benefit them personally.

Even more ominous is the fact that the percentage of people who see reform as a positive has changed very little since Kaiser started asking the question in February. Instead, the public debate over the last few months has essentially moved those who were sitting in the "wouldn't be affected" category into the "hurt" category. Since February, the percentage of people saying that they don't think it will affect them has dropped 15 points, while the number of people who believe it will be harmful went up 12 points.

Winning the battle on health care reform will ultimately come down to messaging. But if the White House and Democratic leaders in Congress couldn't sell a coherent message this summer, will they be able to sell voters on their final version of the plan?

The key, Anzalone said, is that President Obama more than the Republicans has the "trust of voters" on this issue. Once a bill is ultimately passed, the endless cacophony of campaign-style ads and attacks will cease and, Anzalone predicted, Democrats will see a "bounce" in their numbers. In other words, how the issue itself polls isn't as important as how well Obama can sell it.

For Democrats in tough congressional districts, however, trusting that Obama and the national party will retain a significant advantage over Republicans on health care is a leap of faith. NBC/Wall Street Journal polling shows just how quickly an "insurmountable" lead on an issue can slip away. In July of 2008, Democrats' advantage over Republicans on "dealing with health care" was 31 points. By July of 2009, it was down to a 17-point advantage.

Whether Democrats ultimately find political gain from a health care bill remains to be seen. But what is clear is that selling the public option as a stand-alone doesn't tell the whole story. If voters don't like the final product, the individual pieces in the legislation won't matter all that much.